EW’s Oscar 2023 predictions feature one of the most exciting fields of potential honorees in recent memory, including Hollywood heavy hitters (Steven Spielberg, Viola Davis) and first-time nominees (Brendan Fraser, Jamie Lee Curtis, Michelle Yeoh), as well as some high-profile snubs to watch out for.
One main force often determines the Best Picture winner. Either a standout performance by an actor (like Colin Firth for The King’s Speech or Jean DuJardin for The Artist) or the director, whose work has historically influenced the Best Picture winner (like Ben Affleck’s Argo or Martin Scorsese’s The Departed), can pull the entire Oscar race in that direction. But none of these factors have been a factor in Best Picture in recent years, especially after 2016. Instead, activism, which has come to characterize Hollywood as a whole now, has been its driving force.
Read out list of Oscar 2023 predictions in the Best Picture and Directors, which will be updated as often as the season changes in advance of the 95th Academy Awards, which will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel. Keep an eye on our running contender tracker, which analyzes described and the race’s status using the Heat Index.
A winner like Slumdog Millionaire hasn’t appeared in a long. The King’s Speech was a hit at the PGA and went on to win every award there was, including the Oscar 2023 predictions. The Social Network, the season’s front-runner, had won an unprecedented number of critics’ awards that year, and it appeared to be a diversion from that movie. The King’s Speech was an alternative to the movie Oscar voters felt pushed to choose, just like CODA was to the CODA vote.
Best Picture in Oscar 2023
- Everything Everywhere All at Once
- The Fabelmans
- The Banshees of Inisherin
- Top Gun: Maverick
- Avatar: The Way of Water
- All Quiet on the Western Front
- Women Talking
In the Best Picture race, there are many mainstays, and the first nine nominees have all so far maintained their positions. Each of these finalists, from the popular Hollywood dream world of The Fabelmans to the blockbuster global hits Top Gun: Maverick and Avatar: The Way of Water, represents a distinct, important area of the business. The emotional effect of The Fabelmans as a semi-autobiographical story inspired by director Steven Spielberg’s life has been a major factor in the movie’s popularity, even though it occasionally touches on sentimental weak areas.
The battle for the final slots is still fierce because the category is only allowed 10 nominees for the second year in a row. Ruben stlund’s high-class social satire Triangle of Sadness, among the many, many potential nominees, feels timely, with a self-skewering message of contemporary excess that might guilt Oscar voters into ticking it higher on their ballot rankings. These long shots include The Woman King to Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. However, late guild support indicates a recent boost in The Whale’s profile, since SAG nominated Brendan Fraser and Hong Chau before the PGA added the movie to its nominations roster using the same preferential ballot voting system as the Academy.
Best Director in Oscar 2023
- Everything Everywhere All at Once, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
- The Fabelmans, Steven Spielberg
- The Banshees of Inisherin, Martin McDonagh
- TÁR, Todd Field,
- All Quiet on the Western Front, Edward Berger
It’s nearly as difficult to understand that the Academy has only honored director Steven Spielberg, who has won three Oscars, three times for his distinguished career as an “overdue” story this season. Spielberg is perhaps the most well-known and accomplished filmmaker alive. The Fabelmans, a self-reflective semi-autobiographical story about his formative years as a young man, is one of the few times in his career where his position feels more secure. Although the Academy’s directing set normally honors the bulk of the directors responsible for Best Picture nominations. It is not rare for them to go against tradition and recognize the surprise foreign or art house competitor as well (think David Lynch for Mulholland Drive or Pawel Pawlikowski for Cold War).
James Cameron (Top Gun: Maverick) passed over by the DGA this year in favor of Joseph Kosinski, and while it didn’t seem that the Academy would follow suit. The BAFTA nominations threw the race into shambles when Cameron and Spielberg failed to make the British group’s longlists and, ultimately, a nomination spot.